What Does the Future Hold?
July 3, 2008 by clive
Ever since I became an independent film maker I’ve been obsessed with the future, or rather where I think current trends will lead and what new developments will alter the scene.
A lot of my predictions up to this point have been based on watching the way digital rolled out in both the music and radio industries… but, we’ve now reached a point where in terms of technology video has caught up with sound and from now on it’s going to get harder and harder to predict what’s going to happen next.
Some of the early effects of the digital revolution are still being played out, so it’s pretty easy to see how in the TV industry cheap digital production has meant decreased production budgets, the sacking of highly skilled specialists who are replaced with “jack of all trade,” cheap, media students… and at the same time the move in broadcast production from Professional cameras to cheaper prosumer units. All of this is exactly how digital played out in the radio industry: old skilled people became too expensive, new cheap people come in… production standards go down, but because it’s across the board so nobody really notices.
Over the next four to five years I expect to see the same in the film industry. Movies have have always had higher production standards than TV, so technology had to develop further to present a real challenge. HD never really represented a threat to 35mm production, but the new generation of cameras, like the RED definitely do… and now that the footage from those cameras can be handled professionally by FCP on $2,000 worth of laptop, the movie industry is next on the list.
Personally, I think the whole Hollywood, star driven, spectacular, in the $54M + range is pretty safe… capture technology will go over to digital in the main, but in real terms Hollywood will continue to use its financial muscle to do the stuff that independents can’t afford to do. However, the second you step out of the studio gates, I think the landscape is going to change dramatically. I believe the whole $2M to $25M film sector is going to compress down. I don’t think we’ll see many indie budgets over $8M in five year’s time, simply because there is going to be too much competition from the micro-budget sector. What’s the point in making a $3M, no name, genre movie on 35mm, when some production company with a RED and a FCP production suite can make an identical product for under $80,000.
However, I think where we’ll see the biggest changes in the next couple of years are in three areas: distribution, genres and animation.
Animation is about to leave the studio system in the next two years and be mind numbingly cheap and at the same time, it’s also going to get incredibly simple to do. The changes in the technology have slipped under the radar of a lot of film makers, because the film industry isn’t driving the technology, the games industry is. We have already reached the point where behavior prediction technology is starting to edge out keyframes for controlling animation. Don’t worry to much about that, in real terms it means that directing animated avatars is going to get less technical and more like directing actors. In fact, I can see the point where a guy in his office with a play-station controller and some screen capture software is going to turn out animated movies that are the equal of anything Pixar is turning out now.
What I see out there are about three different technologies all moving us towards virtual movie studios… or in other words the ability create movies out of a standard of the shelf PC (and I’m sorry guys, it probably is going to be a PC, because PC have always driven the games industry).
Now, because at the micro-budget range film makers have always preferred any process they can control themselves, I think we’ll see a massive migration of film makers into animation over the next three years… I mean, why work with bad local actors, when you can just animate everything. Personally I think the ability to compete on a more level playing field is going to be attractive to a lot of film makers, especially if they’ve had problems with people in more conventional productions.
The area where most people are predicting changes over the next couple of years is distribution. For years people have been looking for a way to make internet distribution to work, because they’ve seen the issue as a technical one. The idea that if people could order your DVD direct from you online, or download the film from a server, seemed to offer a solution to the traditional frustrations dealing with distributors. However we’ve yet to see a movie achieve big money success outside of traditional distribution. This is because the issues of distribution are not and have never been technical issues. The issues with distribution have always been the same old problems the industry has always faced: how do I get an audience to know about my movie and how do I persuade them it’s worth watching? The actual delivery of the end product is the least interesting part of the process.
Up until a few months ago, I would have said that internet solutions wouldn’t be able to break the distribution issue of indies… however, I actually think that the tide is starting to turn. Nobody has cracked viral self marketing yet, but I really believe that at some point in the next two years someone is going to bring an indie film to the market, sell it by pushing the right concept through social networking sites and self distribute… and, once someone has done that successfully the floodgates will open. What’s holding back this process now, is not the technology, it is the quality of the concepts being developed.
And this brings us to the final shift… genre.
I think the biggest mistake being made by the indie scene today, is the continued attempt to emulate Hollywood using cheap technology. Indie films are never going to be able to compete head to head in Hollywood’s core genres. It’s foolish to try and I think it happens because most indies still see their indie career as an audition for the majors.
Where I predict the big breakthroughs are going to be, is the making of genre busting, quirky, unique films. At some point someone is going to look at the maths and realise that micro-budget films mean you can make films that don’t have to be mass market.
When people really get to grips with the idea that we can make incredible experimental films and still find an audience for them, them we’ll really start to see some changes in the industry… because the ripples will travel through the industry.
I also predict that name actors are going to start looking much more seriously at these boutique projects. The creative freedom the digital revolution offers is going to change everything.
Very interesting, particularly the increasing potential of animation. I looked into the “machinima” movement two years ago, although there were still legal problems at that time about using (or hacking) a games engine from commercial video games. I imagine things have moved forward quite a bit since 2006; must look into it again. As game visualisation becomes increasingly realistic, the results will begin to appeal even more to traditional film makers who can’t find a cast or locations (or a budget for that matter). Especially since the steep learning curve associated with 3D animation (needed to create even remotely acceptable graphics) is taken out of the equation. The artificial intelligence of the games engine allows various players (your “performers”) to enact dramas in fantastic settings. Even the huge storage capacity of traditional animation isn’t a problem, because only the information about how to re-create the scene is stored, not the visuals themselves. Great times ahead for unconventional story tellers…
Hi Clive,
Good article and interesting predictions. I especially get excited in regards to distribution. I have visions of succeeding in that arena - but really like oyu said it’s the content of the film being distributed/marketed that will make the big difference - not HOW it’s done.
I think Four Eyed Monsters is an odd success story - however it would have been an outstanding success story if it was actually a great film. If something like Memento was done in the Indie/No-Budget realm it would have soared.
Pretty good predictions, Clive. I certainly agree with the internet distribution. One day something will break the barrier. However, i don’t think the shift from independent filmmakers from live-action to animation will be as dramatic as you expect. Maybe in time, yes, but not quite that soon. Very good read.
Very astute observations, and would have to say I totally agree - on the finer point perhaps with this canvass we’ll encounter a new generation of content creators who’ll in being able to complete production more easily will then afford themselves more time to really nut out projects from the pre-production stage, I mean, what else can we do with our new found time?
I like a lot of your points, but have to totally disagree about the move to animation over traditional actors. I think some will choose to animate, but if you can’t find or direct decent actors, what makes you think you can connect with an audience using animation? Won’t your voice work (using the “bad local actors” you seem to be stuck with) suck as well?
I love working with actors and the more I do it, the better the end result seems to be. If you are having a hard time finding people with talent, you aren’t looking hard enough. Holding auditions and networking have done wonders for me.
There are gifted performers out there who will work for free to pad their resume. Of course the more talented folks will be more discriminating in what projects they choose, so it is up to you to sell it to them. I never thought I’d ever have to pitch any project to anybody since I make all my own stuff, but that skill has proven handy to get good people both in front of and behind the camera. You do have to back up your words with results (no amount of talk will disguise shoddy work), but once you begin establishing your reputation, you’ll really enjoy these words: “I’d love to work with you again.”
The issue isn’t about the quality of the actors, it’s more basic than that… it is about the gap in production values between a micro-budget traditionally shot movie and a full budget movie, in comparison with a micro-budget animation and a full budget animation.
The problem with micro-budget movies shot the traditional way is they can’t hope to compete in terms of production values… whereas, there are no differences in production values between a micro-budget and a full budget animation. It’s a level playing ground. In fact, in animation the indie has advantages, because they can take a unique vision to market without corporate interference.
Animation also allows you to pitch your project to a higher level of actor. Doing the ADR for an animated movie is a much smaller time commitment than an on set feature. This means you’re not restricted to actors who can afford to work for free for a month at a time… which is a much smaller pool than actors who can afford a couple of weekends to do voice overs.
Now, I agree that not everyone is going to make a migration to animation, however, I think the numbers will be larger than you might expect, because not everyone finds working with actors a joy. One of the hardest jobs on a no budget feature is assembling a decent cast and keeping them for the duration. Not every director can achieve that… and not every director can afford to take the risk of an actor walking out on the project two years into a project.
Regarding machinima legality, there continues to be an issue of infringement if you intend to sell your work. And with machinima becoming more popular the level of scrutiny from corporations can only get stricter. Usually, you own the rights to your unique story, but the game engine “assets” you used to tell that story visually remain the property of the company which owns the game (commercially what you have is a “derivative work” and in violation of the games EULA). People are getting round this by using more open 3D environments, such as making their movies in second Life. A more interesting prospect though are specific machinima tools which have the same ease of use of games, but unlike games are designed from the beginning to be used for movie making. One example is called Moviestorm (www.moviestorm.co.uk) which importantly allows you to distribute and sell anything you make with the software. It’s also free as a download, based in the UK and has an active and friendly community: check it out.